National Overview:
The UKG Workforce Activity Report for December 2021 shows the total number of shifts worked1 by people at U.S. businesses decreased 1.7% in December. While shift volume typically remains flat or declines slightly preceding the December holidays — -0.8% in December 2019 and -0.3% in December 2020 — this year’s dip is larger than usual following the emergence of the omicron variant. The slowing trend continued through the second half of the month, which also showed above-average declines.
Commentary:
Dave Gilbertson, vice president, UKG
“The data shows a strong downward shift starting in mid-December, which coincides with the emergence of the omicron variant throughout the U.S. Unfortunately, these reduced activity levels have persisted, with the last week of the year showing weaker performance than historically experienced. Before this sharp drop-off, workforce activity was showing strength through early December. This was a continuation of growth that started in the fall and was further bolstered by seasonal retail hiring, which started a bit later than usual. We’ll closely watch the impact of omicron, as it has the potential to reduce both the number of shifts available and the number of hourly employees willing to work them.”
Industry Analysis:
Most industries experienced weakened performance from November to December, and, with the emergence of omicron, most performed below December 2020 levels:
- Retail, hospitality, and food service: 2.1% (1.3% in Dec. 2020)
- Healthcare: -1.0% (-0.2% in Dec. 2020)
- Manufacturing: -2.4% (-2.8% in Dec. 2020)
- Services and distribution: -2.7% (1.5% in Dec. 2020)
- Public sector and non-profit: -4.4% (4.8% in Dec. 2020)
Region Snapshot:
Negative growth was experienced across all regions:
- Northeast2: -0.1%
- Southeast3: -1.3%
- Midwest4: -2.2%
- West5: -3.6%
Business Size:
In December, small and mid-sized businesses reduced shifts at a greater rate than larger businesses:
- Fewer than 100 employees: -1.7%%
- 101-500: -2.1%
- 501-1,000: -4.7%
- 1,001-2,500: -0.9%
- 2,501-5,000: -0.1%
- More than 5,000: -2.5%
Recovery Scale:
The UKG Workforce Recovery Scale — which compares shift work activity with pre-pandemic levels — decreased 1.5 points in December to 85.5/100.
Timeliness:
The UKG Workforce Activity Report is a high-frequency index that anticipates U.S. job creation and gauges economic growth by analyzing the number of shifts worked weekly across a sample of 3.8 million employees at 35,000+ organizations.
About UKG
At UKG (Ultimate Kronos Group), our purpose is people. Built from a merger that created one of the largest cloud companies in the world, UKG believes organizations succeed when they focus on their people. As a leading global provider of HCM, payroll, HR service delivery, and workforce management solutions, UKG delivers award-winning Pro, Dimensions, and Ready solutions to help tens of thousands of organizations across geographies and in every industry drive better business outcomes, improve HR effectiveness, streamline the payroll process, and help make work a better, more connected experience for everyone. UKG has 13,000 employees around the globe and is known for an inclusive workplace culture. The company has earned numerous awards for culture, products, and services, including consecutive years on Fortune’s 100 Best Companies to Work For list. To learn more, visit ukg.com.
Footnote 1: “Shifts worked” is a total derived from aggregated employee time and attendance data and reflects the number of times that employees, especially those who are paid hourly or must be physically present at a workplace to perform their jobs, “clock in” and “clock out” via a time clock, mobile app, computer, or other device at the beginning and end of each shift.
Footnote 2: Northeast is defined as Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia.
Footnote 3: Southeast is defined as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Footnote 4: Midwest is defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Footnote 5: West is defined as Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
Copyright 2021 UKG Inc. All rights reserved. For a full list of UKG trademarks, please visit ukg.com/trademarks. All other trademarks, if any, are property of their respective owners. All specifications are subject to change.
Follow UKG on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter, and YouTube.